Let’s run some numbers:
On Jan 16th alone, there were over 3 million downloads of the rednote app within the united states, adding more than 2.7 million active users, on top of more than 600k pre-existing active users.
So let’s just say, even if this trend feds away very quickly, there’re probably gonna be at least 1 million+ active users remain on the app afterwards. And don’t forget it’s total active users are more than 300 million people in the world.
That means, a great number of these newly joined content creators will utilize this opportunity well, and obtain some form of long term success from it.
My supporting evidence for this claim is: Way before this whole TikTok refugee trend, there were already plenty of international celebrities and public figures on this app, and of course we’ve been seeing more celebrities joining in with the TikTok refugees.
The TikTok ban will most likely be lifted by Trump, and that’s why many people claim this whole xiaohongshu trend will fade away very quickly. People who claim that have some very good arguments, so I’m going to take the top 3 arguments, and try to explain why these arguments doesn’t really stand from my point of view.
- Argument #1:
- You can’t talk about anything political on this app, especially anything to do the the Chinese government/politics. Therefore, people will not use it for long.
- This argument is somewhat valid, but to be fair, there’s much more to life than talking about politics: things like sharing memes, joking about being a Chinese spy, or talking about difficulties in life that are surprisingly internationally relatable, all of which are exactly what we’re seeing on the app as we speak. Some people say this singular event is the digital equivalent of the fall of the Berlin Wall. I say it’s about time we focus on things other than politics and hating people on the other side of the world whom we’ve never even met.
- Argument #2
- This app was originally 99% Chinese and still doesn’t offer a very good translation function to help people communicate more easily, even after the most recent update, therefore, this app will not survive.
- This problem will be solved, because this app is one of the most profitable social media apps on the planet, so of course the company will update this very quickly, to maximize their profits.
- Argument #3
- RedNote is not as profitable as platforms like TikTok or YouTube, therefore, content creators, which are vital to any platform, will not stay.
- For this argument, I’m just going to tell you briefly, of how much money you can potentially make from this app: In order to profit off of Xiaohongshu, you need to reach 1000 followers first, after which, you can apply for the official Brand Collaboration Program, where each promotion you take earns you around 10% of your follower count in Chinese Yuan. Meaning, if you have 1,000 followers, you can earn about 100 yuan, which is 13.6 USD. With 10,000 followers, that’s 136 USD, and so on. And on top of that, you can sell products or taking ads from other companies directly, each ad can be priced anywhere between 300 to tens of thousands USD.
You’ve probably seen videos or read articles about how some American celebrities have made millions of dollars from China, whether through Chinese networks or social media.
And guess what? You can potentially do the same—the opportunity was never restricted. Many celebrities and YouTubers have been earning good money from Bilibili for example. As I mentioned earlier, plenty of celebrities were already on Xiaohongshu long before this TikTok refugee trend, and many of them have done the same on other major platforms in China, such as Bilibili.
Bilibili is essentially the Chinese YouTube and the largest long-video platform in China. The Rock is on it, along with several other YouTubers, many of whom have found great success.
As for the other platforms, I can’t really discuss them due to the length of this video, but I’m happy to say that I’m working on another video dedicated to this topic.
With all being said, I hope this essay gives you a better understanding of just how impactful and deep this trend really is. While the popularity of this trend may fade away over time, assuming the company behind it doesn’t seize the opportunity—meaning after seeing such a spike in profits, they decide not to invest heavily in the American market because they “hate money”—even if that’s the case, hundreds of thousands of struggling young Americans have now had this profound realization: there are other options out there. There are international advantages they can take, that they didn’t even know that was a thing.
And that might just have opened a door of opportunities far greater than anyone who could have anticipated(only for some individuals, of course.)
